The Hezbollah organization, a Shiite party and militia, was a key player in the Lebanese civil war and continues to be a key player in Lebanese politics, as well as being involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Members of Hezbollah waving the militia flag
Since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed –and the Israeli counteroffensive that has killed thousands in Gaza– the name Hezbollah has sounded loudly during these months of conflict. Israeli troops and the Shiite militia Hezbollah have exchanged attacks on the Lebanese border and Israel has begun evacuating people from its northern settlements.
WHAT IS HEZBOLLAH AND HOW DID IT APPEAR?
In the Lebanese civil war, between 1975 and 1990, several of the minorities that make up this country clashed, among which the Maronite Christians, Shiite Muslims and Sunni Muslims stand out. With the conflict already underway, in 1982, Israel decided to intervene fully under the pretext of attacking the forces of the then Palestine Liberation Organization (known as PLO).
This intervention against the Palestinian forces caused Israel to occupy the southern strip of Lebanon with the excuse of creating a security zone to protect its border, but in this process more tensions were generated that caused the creation of Hezbollah ("party of God" in Arabic), a Shiite fundamentalist political party and militia that sought, in its origin, to turn Lebanon into an Islamic State.
Hezbollah flag
In this birth, the help of Iran, a country that by 1982 had been constituted as an Islamic Republic for three years and was already beginning to exert its influence in the Middle East, was fundamental. The political and religious values of Hezbollah and the regime of the Ayatollahs are very similar and the collaboration between the two parties has been constant until today.
THE EVOLUTION OF HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah managed to arm itself effectively thanks to Tehran's support and became the most influential Shiite group in the Lebanese civil war, surpassing other historical groups such as the Amal party. This constant confrontation with Israel made its fame grow among the Lebanese Shiites and even after the end of the civil war, this militia decided to continue its fight against the Hebrew State in an attempt to expel it from southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah began in the 1990s to combine its political faction –it is one of the most important parties in Lebanon and occupies government and state positions– with the army, which continued its hostilities towards Israel until 2000, when Israel decided to withdraw its troops from Lebanon.
However, this withdrawal did not mean peace. Hezbollah maintained alliances with the Hamas group, despite being Sunni, with the objective of trying to destabilize Israel as much as possible. Actions that earned it to be considered by Israel, the United States or the nations of the European Union as a terrorist organization, a term that not all countries share.
THE 2006 CONFRONTATION WITH ISRAEL
Soldiers with the flags of Lebanon and Hezbollah in 2006
The 2006 war, six years after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon, erupted after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed several others in a cross-border raid. Israel launched a large-scale air and ground offensive and imposed a blockade with the aim of freeing the hostages and destroying Hezbollah's military capabilities, a mission that ultimately failed. Israeli bombardment ravaged large areas of southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, and Hezbollah fired thousands of unguided rockets at communities in northern Israel.
This conflict convulsed the international landscape in the Middle East region and ended with just over 1,200 dead and 250,000 displaced on the Lebanese side and 41 dead on the Israeli side.
A UN resolution ending the war called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and a demilitarized zone on the Lebanese side of the border. Despite the deployment of UN peacekeepers, Hezbollah still operates in the border area, while Lebanon says Israel regularly violates its airspace and still occupies areas of Lebanese land.
HEZBOLLAH'S ROLE IN THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
A war between Israel and Hezbollah "would be a total disaster," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned in January, amid a wave of diplomatic demarches by the United States and Europe.
Since the worsening conflict in Gaza, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged daily cross-border attacks that have gradually escalated. Israel has also carried out targeted assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Lebanon –some Hamas leaders were exiled to Lebanon years ago–. More than 200 people, mostly Hezbollah fighters– but also more than 20 civilians– have been killed on the Lebanese side and 18 on the Israeli side, and tens of thousands have been displaced on both sides.
Israeli political and military leaders have warned Hezbollah that war is increasingly likely unless the militiamen withdraw from the border. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, has not threatened to start a war, but warned of a "no-holds-barred" fight if Israel does so. The militia maintains that it will not accept a cease-fire on the Israel-Lebanon border before there is one in Gaza, and has rejected a U.S. proposal to withdraw its forces several kilometers from the border, according to Lebanese officials.
A group of men hold the flags of Hezbollah and Palestine
ARE THEY PREPARED FOR WAR?
Both Hezbollah and the Israeli army have expanded their capabilities since 2006, yet both countries are also more fragile.
In Lebanon, four years of economic crisis have crippled public institutions, including the army and the electricity grid, and eroded its healthcare system. In addition, the country is home to more than 1 million Syrian refugees, further exacerbating its dire situation. Lebanon adopted an emergency plan for a war scenario at the end of October, projecting the forced displacement of 1 million Lebanese for 45 days, driving some 87,000 Lebanese away from the border.
Although the government is relying on international organizations to fund the response, many groups working in Lebanon are unable to sustain existing programs. The UN Refugee Agency has provided supplies to collective shelters and delivered emergency cash to about 400 families in southern Lebanon, however, the agency does not have the funds to support large numbers of displaced people in the event of a war. The humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders reported that it has stockpiled about 10 tons of medical supplies and backup fuel for hospital generators in areas most likely to be affected by a wider conflict, in anticipation of a blockade.
Israel is already feeling the economic and social strain from the war in Gaza, which is estimated to cost more than $50 billion, or about 10% of national economic activity until the end of 2024, according to the Bank of Israel. The costs would increase dramatically if there were also a war with Lebanon. Still, an armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could be inevitable, because diplomatic solutions seem unlikely and would only allow Hezbollah's strategic threats to increase.
Israel has evacuated 60,000 residents from towns closest to the border, where there is no warning time for a rocket launch due to the proximity of Hezbollah squads. In a war, there would be no point in additional evacuations since the militia's rockets and missiles can reach all of Israel.
After the October 7 attack, the war in Gaza enjoyed broad domestic support, even if there is now a growing debate about its direction. About half of Israelis would support a war against Hezbollah as a last resort to restore border security, according to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute think tank. In Lebanon, by contrast, some have criticized Hezbollah for exposing the country to another potentially devastating war, but others support the group's limited entry into the conflict and believe that Hezbollah's arsenal will deter Israel from escalation.
WHAT WOULD THIS HYPOTHETICAL WAR LOOK LIKE?
A full-scale war would likely spread to multiple fronts, intensifying the involvement of Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and perhaps even dragging Iran into it. It could also drag the United States
–Israel's closest ally– into deeper involvement in the conflict, which is why it has already sent additional warships to the region.
Hezbollah has between 150,000 and 200,000 rockets and missiles of varying ranges, five times larger than Hamas' and far more accurate. The militia's guided projectiles could hit water, electricity or communications facilities, as well as densely populated residential areas.
In Lebanon, airstrikes would likely wreak havoc on infrastructure and potentially kill thousands of people. Netanyahu has threatened to "turn Beirut into Gaza," where Israel's air and ground incursion has caused widespread destruction and killed thousands. Israel is much better protected, with several air defense systems, including Iron Dome, which intercepts rockets with a success rate of about 90%, but this can be overwhelmed if a massive rocket barrage is launched.
About 40% of Israel's population lives in newer homes, with secure private rooms fortified with blast protection to withstand rocket attacks. Israel also has a network of bomb shelters, but a 2020 government report says that about a third of Israelis do not have easy access to them. Lebanon has no similar network and the shelters would be of little use against the massive "bunker buster" bombs Israel has dropped on Gaza.
Hezbollah has limited air defenses, while those of the Lebanese army are obsolete and insufficient due to budget shortfalls. The Lebanese army has remained on the sidelines for the past four months. In 2006, it entered combat with a limited capability, but it is unclear how it would react in the event of a new war between Israel and Hezbollah.
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