The opposition has wrested major Turkish cities, as well as industrial and traditionally conservative provinces from the ruling party after the government implemented economic austerity measures
On Sunday, March 31, Turks went to the ballot boxes in elections that would mark a turning point in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's term in office. As the vote count progressed, a great amount of the map of Turkey turned reddish. The main opposition party, the social-democratic CHP, not only retained control of Turkey's major cities, but won the mayoralties of 35 provinces, becoming the most voted formation with 37.8% of the support. The result represents a lead of more than half a million votes over the Islamist AKP, led by the president, a much larger difference than those of the last elections in 2019.
The opposition has won in the country's five major cities of Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana and Mersin. Also in the most industrialized cities such as Bursa, Manisa and Denizli or the mining city of Zonguldak. The opposition party has managed to penetrate Black Sea and deep Anatolian provinces, which were hitherto considered conservative fiefdoms that voted for the AKP.
A TOUGH ELECTION FOR ERDOĞAN
Even though Erdoğan was not on the ballot, the results of the municipalities have become a sign of discontent against the president, who reinforced his party's campaign in Istanbul in an attempt to regain political control of the city. The president has work ahead of him: the results of his AKP party reflect a loss of strength in many of his –until now– faithful provinces, as he leads in only 24 provinces, when until now he ruled in 38, while the CHP has conquered 35 instead of the 22 it had since 2019.
Turkey has been dragging for more than two years a severe depreciation of its currency and a rise in prices, which only started to hit businesses a few months ago, according to economists. In addition to inflation that has reached close to 80%, the government has faced much criticism for failing to respond to the earthquakes that struck southern Turkey in February 2023 and killed more than 53,000 people.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his wife, Emine, greet supporters Sunday in Ankara
The Islamist president renewed his mandate as head of state and his majority in parliament thanks to a series of measures to make up for the economic crisis, such as increasing pensions, artificially propping up the Turkish lira, providing free gas to households for a year and easing credit. Months later another reality has started to hit the pockets of Turks. Businesses, particularly SMEs, have been forced to shed some of their workforce, while prices for consumers have continued to rise and the government has increased taxes.
This shift towards more austere policies to stabilize the economy has placed an even greater burden on households, which have punished the ruling party at the polls. This punishment vote can also be seen in the turnout, which dropped on Sunday to 76%, down from 87% in the previous year's elections.
IMAMOĞLU, THE FUTURE OF TURKEY?
Although Turks voted this Sunday in every part of the country, the focus has been on Istanbul because of its political and economic importance. Murat Kurum was Erdoğan's bet to regain control of the area, but the solid track record of Ekrem Imamoğlu, has managed to solidify his victory. Despite this great triumph, the Istanbul mayor's path has also been fraught with obstacles.
Ekrem Imamoğlu after his victory in Istanbul
Erdoğan canceled the first municipal elections in March 2019 and, paradoxically, gave a comfortable victory to Ekrem Imamoğlu during a second vote three months later: the opponent finished 800,000 votes ahead of AKP candidate Binali Yildirim. After this second election, Ekrem Imamoğlu called the members of the High Election Committee who had invalidated the first vote "idiots", which led to him being prosecuted and sentenced in late 2022 to two years, seven months and fifteen days in prison for "insults".
Although he appealed this sentence and denounced a "political affair", this conviction had ruled out the man who was expected to be the Turkish president's main rival in the 2023 presidential elections.
On the other hand, since June 2023, Ekrem Imamoğlu has been prosecuted by the Turkish judiciary on suspicion of manipulation of a tender published at the end of 2015 when he was mayor of Beylikdüzü, a district of Istanbul. The elected official denied these allegations, but faces up to seven years in prison and a penalty of ineligibility if convicted.
Despite these court cases, the mayor of Istanbul regularly ranks among Turks' favorite political figures, making him a strong candidate for Turkey's government.
The next general election is not until 2028, and Erdoğan is expected not only to finish his term, but to try to stay in power. According to the constitution, this should be his second and last term, but he could try to change the law or get the supports parliamentary to avoid a political takeover. The president has long been singled out by his critics, who accuse him of trying to end democracy by silencing dissidents, influencing the judiciary and intimidating the media.
THE "THEFT" OF A MAYORALTY IN VAN PROVINCE
The celebrations for the victory of the opposition in the local elections in Turkey have been short-lived, after the electoral authority snatched the mandate from the candidate of the pro-Kurdish left-wing DEM party in the province of Van, Abdullah Zeydan, who obtained 55.5% of the votes, 28 points more than the candidate of the ruling party, the Islamist AKP, who has been declared the winner. The pro-Kurdish party denounced the "theft" of the decision by the authorities, who removed Zeydan on the grounds that he is disqualified for having served a sentence in a terrorism case.
Following the announcement, party supporters marched through the center of Van to protest against the measure, demonstrations that eventually spread to several provinces in the region. Demonstrators threw Molotov cocktails at police and burned containers and public furniture, and police quelled the protests with water cannons and tear gas.
The DEM party has decided to go to court to allow Zeydan to regain his mayoralty. Van's candidate was convicted in 2017 for making "terrorist propaganda" and "collaborating with a terrorist organization" for statements that were interpreted as an apology for the PKK, considered a terrorist organization in Turkey and the EU. In 2022 he was released from prison and regained all his civic rights, so his candidacy for mayor was accepted by the electoral authority, according to data from his party. DEM argues that two days before the elections, the Prosecutor's Office reopened his case, which would give way to his disqualification, a decision that the party's lawyers will take to court.
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